In its August 12, 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA forecast the 2025/26 U.S. corn crop at roughly 15.4 billion bushels and soybean production at about 4.4 billion bushels, per the report as released by USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. Both figures were the first of the season built on field surveys rather than trend-yield projections, which is why this single monthly report carries more weight than its July predecessor. Farm Press Theme covers this as market information, not marketing advice — no one at this publication tells an operator when to sell.
The report's operator consequence sits in the ending-stocks lines: ample projected supply loosens the U.S. balance sheet, and the pressure that relieves at the national level tends to surface at the farm gate as weaker basis in heavy-supply regions, the classic pattern in post-big-crop marketing windows documented across USDA marketing-year data. Storage decisions — on-farm versus commercial, harvest delivery versus deferred — are exactly the decisions this kind of balance sheet bears on.
What changes now, and what waits for September?
Two things only, honestly. First, the market has a measured yield number to trade instead of a statistical trend, per the agency's published survey methodology. Second, operators with unpriced new-crop inventory now know the frame the trade will argue inside until the September revision. What does not change: the crop is still in the field, August weather still alters final yields, and the January annual summary will reconcile what surveys could only estimate. The documented fact is the forecast; the harvest decides the rest.
For more context, read What grain basis measures, and why it swings by region.
For more context, read What basis means for the price your elevator actually pays.