What forces will shape farm and agribusiness decisions over the next ten years? According to the Kansas City Fed's 2026 Agricultural Economic Summit, the short list is: technology and artificial intelligence, persistent labor scarcity, government policy uncertainty, shifting demographics and consumer preferences, rising capital costs, natural resource constraints, and global competition, particularly from Brazil.
The summit, titled "The Business of Agriculture Amid Structural Change," was held in Omaha on August 5. Around 50 executives and industry experts from organizations connected to agricultural production and agribusiness took part. Their assignment was blunt: identify the structural changes most likely to matter over the next decade, and describe how their organizations are responding.
This guide turns that discussion into a working reference. Each section defines one force, states what the summit said about it, and sets out the planning question it raises for an operator or an agribusiness manager. It is information, not legal, financial, or investment advice, and the figures here are national or industry-level observations rather than local cost data.
Which forces drive structural change in agriculture?
The summit's core finding is convergence. No single force is reshaping agriculture on its own; several are arriving at once. Technology and artificial intelligence are improving efficiency while labor shortages and skill gaps persist. Policy and geopolitical uncertainty add volatility to markets and complicate long-term planning. Demographics and consumer preferences are pushing the industry toward value-added strategies. Rising capital costs, natural resource constraints, and growing global competition round out the list.
For a farm business, the practical consequence is that planning has to be multi-variable. A capital purchase, a hiring decision, and a marketing strategy each sit inside several of these forces at the same time. That is why the summit framed the discussion around business structure, not around any one commodity or season.
How are technology and artificial intelligence changing the cost curve?
The summit described rapid advancement in artificial intelligence as a source of increased opportunities for technology adoption across the agricultural supply chain, supporting cost reductions and efficiency. In both crop and livestock production, autonomous systems and more data-driven decision making are increasingly used to improve productivity. Agribusinesses are incorporating artificial intelligence into everything from seed genetics to marketing and administrative tasks.
The planning question is where adoption pays on your operation. Adoption decisions are investment decisions, and the summit noted that investment across the sector is likely to remain strategic and focused on improving efficiency. For background on what adoption actually looks like in the data, see our coverage of precision agriculture adoption, and for the return side of the ledger, where precision ag pays in row-crop operations.
What does the labor picture mean for hiring and training?
Persistent labor scarcity in many regions and gaps in technical skills could remain an ongoing challenge across the sector. For producers, worker availability is particularly scarce because of rural demographic trends and the willingness of the local workforce to take on more demanding agricultural occupations.
The newer problem is skills. The summit noted that the labor force increasingly lacks the knowledge required for roles demanding advanced data analysis, computer programming, and understanding of emerging mechanical and technical innovations. In other words, the constraint is shifting from finding hands to finding people who can run and interpret the new equipment. Labor cost planning, including visa-based hiring, is covered in our breakdown of what an H-2A worker actually costs.
Why is policy uncertainty a structural force, not just a headline?
Government policy intersects with global demand, technology, trade, and geopolitics. Policy and geopolitical uncertainty, along with differing policies across states and countries, has contributed to volatility in agricultural markets. The summit's assessment is that this heightened and persistent uncertainty has complicated decision making and made it harder for businesses to respond to emerging shocks.
One measurable response: many businesses have devoted more resources to policy advocacy to advance outcomes that might be most advantageous. For an operator, the planning question is how much management time and budget to allocate to policy monitoring and engagement, given that the uncertainty is expected to persist rather than resolve.
How are demographics and preferences changing demand?
Aging populations and slower population growth in many regions are key factors shaping the long-term demand outlook. Slower population growth often does not support the older strategy of continuously increasing production volumes to feed a fast-growing world. Demand has also been affected by expanded adoption of GLP-1 pharmaceuticals and a substantial consumer shift toward higher-protein foods.
The summit's conclusion is that the past decades' volume-driven production model is misaligned with these demand patterns, and the sector may need to shift toward a more value-added strategy. The planning question is which value-added direction fits your operation, your region, and your capital position.
What do capital costs mean for investment and consolidation?
Agriculture is becoming increasingly capital intensive, and elevated costs for machinery, infrastructure, and land are shaping decision making. Higher capital costs, and the potential for a larger efficiency gap between businesses, could also increase the pace of consolidation.
The summit flagged who feels that squeeze: smaller farming operations, agribusinesses, and lending institutions, along with significant regional effects from business restructuring. Land is a central part of the equation, and our farmland values outlook covers that market in detail. Tax treatment of equipment purchases is covered separately in our bonus depreciation explainer. Readers following this should also see What 100% bonus depreciation means for your next equipment purchase.
What about water, climate, and trade?
Natural resources will play a crucial role in shaping farm business decisions. A steady water supply, pest and disease prevention, and affordable energy will matter for the long-term path of costs and production constraints. The summit identified rising energy and water costs as a particularly significant threat to the profitability of U.S. farming operations in the coming years.
Trade remains tenuous. Export markets are a critical source of demand for U.S. agricultural production, and the outlook is uncertain alongside geopolitical tensions and increasing global competition. The prospects of key U.S. trading partnerships remain clouded, and ongoing global conflicts have added instability to agricultural markets. Meanwhile, Brazil is likely to continue becoming increasingly competitive in international markets.
What should a farm business do with this list?
The evidence from the summit establishes the forces and their direction; it does not establish how any single operation should sequence its response. That sequencing is the durable takeaway. Each force maps to a specific planning document: an adoption plan for technology, a skills and staffing plan for labor, a policy-monitoring budget for uncertainty, a value-added assessment for demand, and a capital and succession plan for the consolidation pressure. Our succession planning steps address the last of those directly.
What remains unknown is the timing and magnitude of each force. The summit summary describes pressures likely to be most significant over the next ten years, not a schedule. Revisit the list as new data from the Kansas City Fed's Center for Agriculture and the Economy and its summit series becomes available.
